Publication: Investigating the causes of the recent Brazilian trade surpluses
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eng
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Brasil
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1971-1987
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BR
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dARK
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Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)
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Discussion Paper 24 : Investigating the causes of the recent Brazilian trade surpluses, Investigando as causas dos recentes superávits comerciais brasileiros
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Abstract
Este artigo investiga o recente boom do superávit comercial brasileiro pela estimativa de um modelo de ajuste parcial para as exportações e importações. Os resultados indicam que o quantum das exportações é explicada basicamente pela renda do resto do mundo e pelo hiato da produção interna. O papel da taxa de câmbio parecia ser a teoria econômica vis-à-vis insignificante e, por vezes, contraditório. O quantum importações dependia unicamente sobre a evolução da taxa de câmbio real e flutuações do produto no mercado interno não impactar as importações.
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This paper investigates the recent boom of the Brazilian trade surplus by estimation a partial adjustment model for exports and imports. The results indicate that the exports quantum is basically explained by the income of the rest of the world and by the gap of domestic output. The role of the exchange rate seemed to be negligible and sometimes contradictory vis-à-vis economic theory. The imports quantum depended solely on the evolution of the real exchange rate, and domestic output fluctuations did not impact imports.