Coelho, Danilo Santa CruzMaciel, Natália Cardoso AmorimMartinez, Victor Dantas de Maio2025-08-192025-08-192025-07COELHO, Danilo Santa Cruz; MACIEL, Natália Cardoso Amorim; MARTINEZ, Victor Dantas de Maio. Socioeconomic status, drug-related factors, and bias in judicial decisions: evidence from Brazilian drug trafficking cases. Brasília: Ipea, July 2025. 41 p. (Discussion Paper, n. 3116). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.38116/td3116-enghttps://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/handle/11058/18328Este estudo está acompanhado de um sumário executivo que oferece uma visão geral dos resultados e recomendações.This study examines the influence of defendants’ socioeconomic status, criminal history, and drug-related factors on judicial outcomes in Brazilian drug trafficking cases. Using data from 4,606 defendants and applying econometric techniques, the analysis identifies pretrial detention as a key determinant of both conviction likelihood and sentence severity. Socioeconomic disadvantage—particularly the percentage of low-income residents in a defendant’s neighborhood—emerges as a strong predictor of punitive outcomes. Judicial decisions are also shaped by gender, age, prior convictions, and the quantity of drugs involved. Although race does not show direct effects on sentencing, Black individuals are disproportionately subjected to police stops, increasing their exposure to arrests in flagrante delicto, which in turn raises the likelihood of pretrial detention and conviction.41engAcesso AbertoWorking paperInstituto de Pequisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)Tráfico de DrogasSistema JudiciárioLicença ComumThe opinions expressed in this publication are of exclusive responsibility of the authors, not necessarily expressing the official views of the Institute for Applied Economic Research and the Ministry of Planning and Budget. Reproduction of this text and the data contained within is allowed as long as the source is cited. Reproduction for commercial purposes is prohibited.Drug traffickingJudicial decisionsSocioeconomic biasSentencingDrug policyDecisões judiciaisViés socioeconômicoSentenciamentoPolítica de drogas10.38116/td3116-eng