Managing the Exchange Rate Consequences of an MDG-Related Scale-up in HIV/AIDS Financing

Abstract

This Conference Paper by John Serieux was presented at the “Global Conference on Gearing Macroeconomic Policies to Reverse the HIV/AIDS Epidemic”, jointly organized by UNDP’s HIV/AIDS Group and IPC and held in Brasilia, November 2006. It is part of an IPC-supported Research Programme on “Macroeconomic Policies to Combat HIV/AIDS”. The paper argues that any adverse macroeconomic effects of a large scaling up of HIV/AIDS financing can be prevented by proper exchange-rate management, including frontloading aid, building up a modest stock of foreign exchange reserves and refraining from over-reacting to initial moderate increases in inflation and the value of the exchange rate.