Estimating potential output: a survey of the alternative methods and their applications to Brazil

Barbosa Filho, Nelson H.

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/handle/11058/5450

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DC Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Barbosa Filho, Nelson H.	-
dc.coverage.spatial	Brasil	pt_BR
dc.date.accessioned	2015-11-17T19:07:48Z	-
dc.date.available	2015-11-17T19:07:48Z	-
dc.date.issued	2015-01	-
dc.identifier.uri	http://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/handle/11058/5450	-
dc.description.abstract	Apresenta as principais questões envolvidas na estimativa do produto potencial. O objetivo é descrever os métodos alternativos e analisar sua aplicação e implicações para as previsões de crescimento e para a política macroeconômica no Brasil. O texto enfatiza os determinantes da produção potencial em coeficientes fixos e flexíveis de produção. Dada a ampla utilização de medidas agregadas de Produtividade Total dos Fatores na contabilização de crescimento, e a sensibilidade de tal variável de pressupostos econômicos e erros de medição, o texto também apresenta as principais críticas aplicadas, e alternativas para exercícios de contabilidade do crescimento agregado.	pt_BR
dc.language.iso	en-US	pt_BR
dc.publisher	Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)	pt_BR
dc.title	Estimating potential output: a survey of the alternative methods and their applications to Brazil	pt_BR
dc.title.alternative	Discussion Paper 147 : Estimating potential output: a survey of the alternative methods and their applications to Brazil	pt_BR
dc.type	Discussion Paper	pt_BR
dc.rights.holder	Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)	pt_BR
dc.source.urlsource	http://www.ipea.gov.br	pt_BR
dc.location.country	BR	pt_BR
dc.description.physical	75 p. : il.	pt_BR
dc.rights.license	Reproduction of this text and the data it contains is allowed as long as the source is cited. Reproductions for commercial purposes are prohibited.	pt_BR
dc.subject.keyword	Produto potencial	pt_BR
dc.subject.keyword	Política macroeconômica	pt_BR
dc.subject.keyword	Previsões de crescimento	pt_BR
dc.subject.keyword	Produtividade Total dos Fatores (PTF)	pt_BR
dc.relation.references	http://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/handle/11058/1952	pt_BR
ipea.description.objective	Descrever os métodos alternativos para estimativa de produto potencial, e analisar sua aplicação e implicações para as previsões de crescimento e para a política macroeconômica no Brasil.	pt_BR
ipea.description.additionalinformation	Série monográfica : Discussion Paper ; 147	pt_BR
ipea.description.additionalinformation	Possui referências bibliográficas.	pt_BR
ipea.description.additionalinformation	Série: Originally published by Ipea in May 2005 as number 1092 of the series Texto para Discussão.	pt_BR
ipea.access.type	Acesso Aberto	pt_BR
ipea.rights.type	Licença Comum	pt_BR
ipea.englishdescription.abstract	This paper presents the main issues involved in estimating potential output. The objective is to describe the alternative methods and analyze their application and implications for growth forecasts and macroeconomic policy in Brazil. The text emphasizes the determinants of potential output under fixed and flexible coefficients of production. Given the wide use of aggregate measures of Total Factor Productivity in growth accounting, and the sensitivity of such a variable to economic assumptions and errors of measurement, the text also presents the main applied critiques and alternatives to aggregate growth-accounting exercises. The main conclusions are: i) the annual potential growth rate of Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) varies substantially depending on the method and hypotheses adopted and, what is most important, potential GDP is not separable from effective GDP in the long-run; ii) growth-accounting and time-series studies of Brazil result in low potential-output growth rates because they extrapolate the slow growth of 1981-2003 to the future; iii) capital seems to be the main constraint on growth in Brazil and, therefore, a demand-led increase in investment can raise both its effective and potential output levels; iv) however, because of the slow adjustment of the capital stock, an investment boom can also hit a supply constraint before the stock of capital has time to adjust to the growth rate of investment; and v) aggregate measures of potential output do not carry much information about the economy and, therefore, they should be complemented by sectoral estimates of capacity utilization to identify the bottlenecks in inter-industry flows and the corresponding demand pressures on inflation.	pt_BR
ipea.researchfields	N/A	pt_BR
ipea.classification	Economia. Desenvolvimento Econômico	pt_BR
Appears in Collections:	Economia. Desenvolvimento Econômico: Livros

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