Publication: Total factor productivity growth and export-led strategies : reviewing the cross-country evidence
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eng
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BR
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Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)
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Discussion Paper 23 : Total factor productivity growth and export-led strategies : reviewing the cross-country evidence, Crescimento da produtividade total dos fatores e estratégias orientadas para a exportação : analisando provas através dos campos
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Abstract
O texto revisa, examina e comenta a literatura empírica que apresenta a análise estatística entre países para provar que a orientação para exportação tem um impacto positivo e significativo no fator total do crescimento da produtividade. Analisa se essa metodologia é adequada para testar a relação entre exportação e crescimento da produtividade. A conclusão é negativa.
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In this paper we review, examine and comment the empirical literature that relies on cross-country statistical analyses to shoe that export orientation has a positive and significant impact on total factor productivity growth. We comment the work reviewed along four lines. First, we address the question of properly identifying the degree of export bias of an economy and the ways by which exports and growth are related. Second, we consider the sensitivity of the results to sample and period selection. Third, we review the evidence with respect to the direction of causality between export and output growth. Finally, we extend the analysis beyond the single-equation cross-country regression model to see the relevance of specification problems. Our main conclusion is that, although adequate to search for stylized facts, the cross-country model is not the best way to examine the association between total factor productivity growth and trade orientation.