Working Paper IPC-IG

URI Permanente para esta coleçãohttps://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/handle/11058/17478

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Plano Brasil Sem Miséria: Incremento e Mudança na Política de Proteção e Promoção Social no Brasil
(2013) Paes-Sousa, Rômulo
No período recente, o Brasil tem se destacado como redutor da pobreza e das desigualdades socioeconômicas entre seus cidadãos. São notórios os avanços referentes a uma ação combinada de crescimento econômico e inclusão social. Evidências produzidas em estudos independentes indicam que as políticas de proteção social têm contribuído para o desenvolvimento deste modelo. (…)
Zimbabwe’s social protection system and its harmonized social cash transfer programme
(2018) Arruda, Pedro
"Zimbabwe is a low-income, land-locked country in Southern Africa with an estimated population of 13,061,239 people, according to the latest census (ZIMSTAT 2012). Two thirds (67 per cent) of Zimbabweans live in rural areas, and 51.9 per cent of the total population are female (ibid.). Between 1996 and 2008, Zimbabwe experienced a systemic crisis with consecutive decreases in gross domestic product (GDP). The crisis generated an extremely high incidence of poverty (people living below the total consumption poverty line) and a deepening of food/extreme poverty (people living below the food poverty line)". (...)
Why is ‘The Dutch disease’ always a disease? the macroeconomic consequences of scaling up ODA
(2005) McKinley, Terry
This working paper examines the validity of the claim that ‘scaling up’ ODA in developing countries will cause ‘Dutch Disease’ effects that slow growth and human development. The most common concerns are increased inflation and exchange-rate appreciation. Consistent with a recent IMF re-appraisal, the paper maintains that such problems can be mitigated if ODA is properly ‘spent’ and ‘absorbed’. However, many governments either do not spend ODA (because of the fear of inflation) or do not ‘absorb’ it (because of the fear of appreciation). The paper argues that the critical issues are whether 1) increased government spending is focused on public investment and 2) increased imports are focused on capital goods. A central point is that in many developing countries, under-utilized productive capacities can readily respond to rising government demand for domestic goods and services. The paper ends with the warning that although the short-run macroeconomic impact of ODA can be managed, its longer-term impact could, indeed, be adverse if it reduces efforts to mobilize domestic resources, such as public revenue and national savings.
Where Biodiversity, Traditional Knowledge, Health and Livelihoods Meet: Institutional Pillars for The Productive Inclusion of Local Communities (Brazil Case Study)
(2011) Lal, Radhika; Junior, Waldemiro Francisco Sorte
Brazil recently launched a cross-ministerial programme—the Plano Nacional de Promoção das Cadeias de Produtos da Sociobiodiversidade (PNPSB)—to facilitate the ‘sustainable’ development of environmentally and socially sustainable productive chains for sociobiodiversity products. The programme framework for the PNPSB incorporates a strong focus on fostering productive inclusion (inclusão produtiva) which broadly entails creating conditions for the poor (extractivists, traditional communities and family farmers in this instance) to improve their productive capacities and strengthen their insertion in productive activities. In particular, it centres on how the institutional pillars of a productive-inclusion approach can be reinforced so as to enhance the benefits that such communities can receive from their integration into natural-resource-based production chains and the delivery of services (e.g. phytotherapies and phytocosmetics). With the view to identifying key channels of impact the paper also draws on the experiences of two earlier productive inclusion programmes: i.e. the Food Acquisition Programme (Programa de Aquisição de Alimentos, PAA) and the National Program for Production and Use of Biodiesel (Programa Brasileiro de Produção e Uso de Biodiesel, PNPB). It seeks to identify ‘development functions’ best performed by public institutions and explores the concept of a ‘regulated market’ framework that is characteristic of these types of productive inclusion programmes.
What Are The Implications of The Global Crisis and its Aftermath for Developing Countries, 2010-2020?
(2010) Sumner, Andy; Ballantyne, Joe; Curry, Andrew
Some major “game changers” beyond the recent economic crisis and food/fuel crisis will have an impact on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to 2015 and afterwards. “Future-proofing” the MDGs is about thinking how future(s) might impact the Goals, MDG gains, costs, strategies and opportunities for faster progress on poverty reduction. Scenarios—multiple coherent and plausible futures—are a vehicle both for acting on possible future(s) and interpreting their implications. This paper explores the implications for growth and poverty reduction in developing countries of four futures scenarios to address the following question: “What are the implications of the global financial crisis and its aftermath, regionally and globally, for developing countries, taking a 5–10 year view? The scenarios and modelling were developed through interviews and workshops with a range of stakeholders in the United Kingdom, India and Kenya. This paper takes a structured approach to reviewing outcomes for growth, poverty reduction and the MDGs for different developing economies, against the background of the post-crisis context. The scenarios were developed using a version of the morphological scenarios approach, field anomaly relaxation (FAR). This creates a backdrop of internally consistent futures for policy formation and decision making by identifying and analysing the most significant drivers of change in the global financial and political systems. The scenarios are closely connected to a “soft” model that identifies possible pathways, causal linkages and transmission variables between the scenarios and associated levels of economic growth and poverty reduction via key economic variables. This permits more granular interpretation of the scenario outcomes than conventional scenario-analysis techniques. The work was financed by Britain’s Department for International Development (DFID). (...)
Towards a Common Vision: Pulling Together or Apart? A Review of Sub-national Patterns of Multiple Deprivation in Namibia
(2012) Odhiambo, Ojijo
This paper presents a review of deprivation at the sub-national (regional) level in Namibia in the material, employment, health, education, services and housing domains as well as constituency-level multiple deprivation, but aggregated at regional levels. The study provides a strong basis for interrogating the reasons for the existence of the wide inter- and intraregional inequality and inequity with respect to levels of income and access to basic services and identifying priority sectors, at the sub-national level, for public investments. Further, the study provides a useful basis for initiating public policy discourse with regard to resource allocation and, most importantly, ring fencing and targeting those resources to areas or sectors where the particular regions are most deprived and linking development to the exercise of political and other forms of leadership, and accountability for results and impact at the lowest possible level. Another possible contribution of this study could be the need for policy- and decision makers in Namibia to consider institutionalising the Namibia Index of Multiple Deprivation weighted Equalization Fund (NIMDEF), whereby regions—and subsequently constituencies— receive and apply development funds and other resources on the basis of the relative weights of their index of multiple deprivation and population sizes. The study is a useful addition to the existing collection of proposals for consideration by policy- and decision-makers to put the country on a new development pathway as it moves towards a green economy. (…)
The Welfare Impacts of Changes in the Brazilian Domestic Work Market
(2012) Domingues, Edson Paulo; Souza, Kênia Barreiro de
Domestic work encompasses a series of activities such as cleaning, housekeeping, cooking, washing clothes and caring for children, elderly or disabled people and pets, among others. Although domestic workers may perform different types of activities, two features are common to all of them: the work is paid, and the work is done in a home other than that of the worker him/herself (ILO, 2011th; ILO, 2011ab). Because of these and other socio-economic characteristics, paid domestic workers are similar in a number of way, namely: i) predominance of female workers; ii) low wages; iii) the employer is an individual; iv) legislation does not follow the Consolidated Labour Laws (Consolidação das Leis do Trabalho – CLT)—in fact, such labour rights are mentioned as exceptions in the Federal Constitution (Constituição Federal – CF) itself; and v) there is a high degree of labour informality (ILO, 2011c; IBGE, 2012th). (…)
The tax system of OECD countries and main recommendations from the Organisation: Parameters for a tax reform in Brazil
(2022) Junior, Pedro Humberto Bruno de Carvalho
This paper describes the tax systems of OECD advanced economies and assesses the entity’s recommendations on tax policy, applying them to the debate around tax reform in Brazil. It is not meant as a guide for OECD taxation to be copied by Brazil, but rather to provide tools to better foster the debate around a tax reform that is economically efficient and socially inclusive. It seeks to enhance the debate around tax reform, showing current international indicators and trends and the limitations of tax reform proposals, considering international benchmarks.
The state of social protection for agrifood systems workers in West Africa
(2022) Perin, Gabriela; Dytz, João Pedro Bregolin; Sato, Lucas; Yousif, Nourjelha Mohamed
This Working Paper discusses social protection systems and programmes across countries in West Africa, and the extent to which they consider the needs of agrifood system workers. It aims to show how agrifood system workers are included or excluded, the benefits that are relevant to them, and how to improve their access to social protection.
The state of social insurance for agricultural workers in the Near East and North Africa and challenges for expansion
(2021) Sato, Lucas
Agricultural workers are exposed to many risks during their life cycle and are particularly vulnerable to covariate risks, such as droughts, armed conflict and pandemics. Despite the great potential of social protection policies to protect this segment of the population, agricultural workers are commonly excluded from social protection systems, especially contributory ones. This Working Paper examines the barriers for agricultural workers to participate in contributory schemes, highlighting good practices being adopted in NENA countries to address them.
The Social Policies of Emerging Economies: Growth and Welfare in China and India
(2013) Haan, Arjan de
Social policies play a critical role in the transformation of emerging economies. This paper discusses this with reference to China and India, with their very distinctive public policy approaches. Much of the economics literature either does not pay much attention to social policy or regards it as secondary at best or as a market enemy at worst. Views on social policy in emerging economies see this as either lagging or threatening growth. Instead, this paper argues, social policy is congruent and constitutive, and sustainable social policies are those that are formulated as part of economic policies and transformation, and, in turn, shape the conditions of enhancing markets and productivity. The paper describes how the ‘great transformation’ of both countries shapes social policy responses, the institutions and ideas that give very different shapes to the two countries’ policies and the way policies vis-à-vis minorities are situated in both countries’ social policies. The conclusion argues for the distinct research agenda that follows from this conceptualisation of social policy. (...)
The single registry as a tool for the coordination of social policies
(2016) Direito, Denise do Carmo; Koga, Natália Massaco; Lício, Elaine Cristina; Chaves, Jeniffer Carla de Paula N.
"This paper reviews and discusses the potential of the Brazilian federal government's Single Registry for Social Programmes (Cadastro Único para Programas Sociais) as a tool for the coordination of social policies. The paper consists of four sections. The introductory section describes the trajectory of the Single Registry since its inception in 2001 and offers concepts to help categorise the over 30 user programmes that leverage its database and implementation network. Subsequently, a review is made of the extent to which the inclusion of new programmes in the Registry (i.e. in addition to the Bolsa Família programme) brings new challenges and affects various aspects of its management. In the third section, the Single Registry is placed (in terms of its management and objectives) within the typology developed by Barca and Chirchir (2014). The fourth and final section summarises the main challenges faced by the Single Registry and envisages possible strategic roles it may play in the current scenario". (…)
The role of zakat in the provision of social protection: a comparison between Jordan, Palestine and Sudan
(2018) Machado, Anna Carolina; Bilo, Charlotte; Helmy, Imane
"Zakat is one of the five pillars of Islam and can be understood as a form of religious duty, purifying one's wealth and at the same time functioning as a means to redistribute wealth to those in need. In Arabic, zakat means, among others, growth and purity (Dean and Khan 1997). In Muslim-majority countries, it has a long tradition of providing income, goods for consumption and other basic services such as health care and education to poor and marginalised populations. A growing body of research has investigated the role of zakat in the provision of social protection—understood here as income and in-kind transfers with the aim of protecting vulnerable people against risks—and its importance as a poverty reduction mechanism (see Ali 2014; Hassan 2010; Hassanain and Saaid 2016; Ibrahim and Ghazali 2014). Although much of the criticism of zakat institutions evolves around their lack of coordination, efficiency and transparency (Johari, Ali, and Aziz 2015), zakat has several advantages when it comes to assisting poor people. In countries where the State provides limited social protection—due to ongoing conflicts, for example—zakat can play a crucial role in providing support to those in need". (...)
The Role of Gender Inequalities in Explaining Income Growth, Poverty and Inequality: Evidence from Latin American Countries
(2009) Costa, Joana; Silva, Elydia; Vaz, Fábio
This Working Paper investigates the possible link between gender inequalities in the labour market and significant economic outcomes such as income growth, poverty and inequality indicators. Our analysis is based on microsimulations for eight Latin American countries. We consider four aspects of gender inequalities: differences in labour market participation, differences in occupational status, wage discrimination and differences in characteristics. Our findings highlight the relevance of gender equality, especially an increase in women’s access to the labour market, in bringing about a reduction in poverty and inequality.
The Recent Impact of Government Transfers on Poverty in Honduras and Alternatives to Enhance their Effects
(2008) Osorio, Rafael Guerreiro
This paper characterises income poverty in Honduras during the first half of 2007, and assesses the impact that some government transfers have had on it. The characterisation of income poverty shows that it is possible to eradicate poverty in Honduras solely through redistribution, despite its being a low-income country. The analysis of the incidence and impact of government transfers reveals that they do reach the poor, but that they are not very effective in reducing the poverty headcount ratio or in alleviating poverty by reducing its intensity and severity. Nonetheless, the counterfactual simulations presented here show that improvements in targeting and increases in the amount transferred could significantly enhance the impact of government transfers on poverty in Honduras. (...)
The Post-Apartheid Evolution of Earnings Inequality in South Africa, 1995-2004
(2006) Leite, Phillippe G.; McKinley, Terry; Osorio, Rafael Guerreiro
This paper examines the trend in post-Apartheid earnings inequality in South Africa. By combining data sets, the paper is able to analyze the trend for the whole period 1995-2004. Earnings inequality rose sharply during 1995-1999 and then declined marginally, but remained high, during 2000-2004. A dramatic rise in unemployment was the driving force in exacerbating earnings inequality in the 1990s. Unemployment began to level off in the 2000s but remained at a high rate. An unprecedented influx of new entrants into the formal labour market in the 1990s put downward pressure on average real wages, affecting workers both in the middle of the distribution and toward the bottom. The growth of the South African economy has been neither rapid enough nor employment-intensive enough to absorb such a large influx of workers. Moreover, the economy’s greater openness to trade and financial flows appears to have left many workers behind, especially Africans, workers in low-skilled occupations, residents of rural areas in general and poor regions in particular. Earnings inequality remains high across groupings of workers differentiated by race, education and occupation although occupation has become a more important factor than the other two in the 2000s. Differentials across the mean earnings of workers classified by rural and urban residence and by province have also intensified. In the 1990s, inequalities within groupings of worker rose sharply and then moderated by the 2000s. While earnings differentials by race and the rural-urban divide also exacerbated inequality in the 1990s, they have been in modest decline since then. These changes in the dynamics of earnings inequality between the 1990s and 2000s pose new challenges for South African policymakers in their efforts to substantially reduce the Apartheid legacy of high inequality and poverty.
The Poor, the Prosperous and the ‘Inbetweeners’: A Fresh Perspective on Global Society, Inequality and Growth
(2014) Edward, Peter; Sumner, Andy
Global consumption grew by $10 trillion from 1990 to 2010. Who benefited, and what has happened to global and national inequality since 1990? (…)
The monopoly of global capital flows: Who needs structural adjustment now?
(2006) McKinley, Terry
The U.S. economy is monopolizing global net savings, i.e., about two-thirds of the total. Other rich countries, such as Japan and Germany, oil exporters, such as Saudi Arabia, middleincome countries, such as China, and even some low-income countries, such as India and Indonesia, export capital to finance yearly U.S. current-account deficits. The resulting global imbalances are neither sustainable nor equitable. Capital should be recycled to poorer countries, instead of funneled, overwhelmingly, to the world’s largest rich country. Low-income countries need a substantially higher injection of real external resources and should be allowed to pursue more expansionary, growth-oriented economic policies. Blaming capital-exporting developing countries, such as China, for global imbalances is not the answer. Such countries are merely succeeding in developing rapidly. Other rich countries, which account for most capital exports, have to take the lead in dramatically restructuring their expenditures. They will be able thereafter to absorb a greater share of developing-country exports. The danger of a recession in the U.S. is rising, threatening growth in the rest of the world. U.S. policymakers have to move aggressively to contain private consumption, especially real estate spending, in favor of productive private investment, and boost exports relative to imports. Without such a structural adjustment, the danger of a ‘hard landing’ for the U.S. economy—and, by implication, for the rest of the world—will escalate.
The MDGs and pro-poor polices: related but not synonymous
(2004) Vandemoortele, Jan
"The working paper asks whether the millennium development goals (MDGs) have created opportunities for enlarging pro-poor policy choices at the country level. It concludes that in most countries the policy framework is not yet aligned with the fundamental objective of reducing human poverty. Poverty reduction continues to be seen as an automatic by-product of economic growth and macroeconomic stability. Governments and their partners find it difficult to translate the concept of ‘pro-poor growth’ into practice. Equity continues to be the big absentee in most anti-poverty strategies." (...)
The Implications of Water and Electricity Supply for the Time Allocation of Women in Rural Ghana
(2009) Costa, Joana; Hailu, Degol; Silva, Elydia; Tsukada, Raquel
This paper investigates the time allocation of women in Ghana as a trade-off between domestic chores and market-oriented activities when households are provided with water and electricity infrastructure. Using the Ghana Living Standards Survey, Round Four, we find that the time spent on remunerated activities increases when households are provided with electricity, while the supply of water reduces the time burden faced by rural women.

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