Alternatives for Projecting MDG Indicators

Abstract

Although the Millennium Development Goals are global, in the sense that they are to be reached by the whole world, not necessarily by countries individually, in many countries the true commitment to them has led many to ask the question: will my country reach all or some of the MDGs by 2015? Are we on or off track? If off track, how far are we? To answer this question it is mandatory to perform some kind of projecting exercise. We talk of projections, not of forecasts, for there are many variables that can intervene to determine the performance of a country in its pursuit of the goals. Furthermore we have to deal with the fact that we cannot really predict what is going to happen up to 2015, but just make assumptions. However, projections can indeed be so accurate as to resemble forecasts. This is the case when there is plenty of data available, as well as technical expertise in projecting, and time. Unfortunately, this is seldom the case, particularly in developing countries. The common situation faced by those who ask the question on whether the MDGs will be reached by a certain country by 2015 is that of scarcity of data and/or of technical skills. (...)