Mais Produção Plan, powershoring and comparative advantages : financing strategies for Brazil’s green industrial policy

Abstract

This paper analyzes how BNDES financing through the Mais Produção Plan (P+P) contributes to diversifying and increasing the complexity of Brazilian industry. It also investigates the powershoring strategy as a green industrialization approach for Brazil, leveraging the country’s renewable energy matrix. Through a comparative analysis of the sectors funded by BNDES and Brazil’s export profile using economic complexity indicators (Product Complexity Index, Opportunity Gain, and Revealed Comparative Advantage), the study assesses the effectiveness of P+P in promoting strategic sectors. The results show that BNDES has targeted investments toward more complex sectors, such as machinery, chemicals, and electronics, but still allocates a significant share to the lower-complexity agricultural sector. The study concludes that incorporating the powershoring strategy into BNDES’s portfolio could enhance Brazil’s industrial competitiveness by utilizing renewable energy to attract investments and promote the transition to a low-carbon economy.