Publication: Technological progress and investment : microeconomic foundations and macroeconomic implications
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eng
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BR
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Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)
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Discussion Paper 166 : Technological progress and investment : microeconomic foundations and macroeconomic implications, Evolução tecnológica e investimento : fundamentos microeconômicos e implicações macroeconômicas
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Abstract
A década de 90 testemunhou um boom de pesquisas no campo das decisões privadas de investir, em grande parte motivadas pelo ajuste empírico ruim de teorias tradicionais como custos de ajustamento convexo. Nesse artigo, apresentam-se de forma sucinta alguns avanços nesta área, como custos de ajustamento não convexo, irreversibilidade e incerteza. Argumenta-se, entretanto que o progresso tecnológico é tratado de forma pouco satisfatória em tais teorias. O progresso tecnológico incorporado (embodied) é variável chave para se entender o processo de acumulação de capital, com implicações macro relevantes. O artigo faz uma revisão das teorias, especialmente, apresentando duas maneiras distintas de se modelar progresso tecnológico incorporado. Um teste empírico para economia espanhola, confirma a importância de progresso tecnológico, na explicação do investimento privado.
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This paper presents a non-technical overview of the recent investment literature with a special emphasis on the connection between technological progress and the investment decision. First of all, we acknowledge that some dramatic advances have been made in the 1990s in understanding and modelling non-convex capital adjustment schemes and irreversibility. Nonetheless, this new literature has not satisfactorily accounted for the investment-specific (or embodied) nature of technical progress. We argue that the recent technological trends have a heavy impact on the way the investment decision is taken and is to be taken. This is turn should imply the reconsideration of many empirical results, and a more careful modelling strategy taking into account the price variables and scrupulously choosing the most appropriate level of (dis)aggregation.