Socioeconomic status, drug-related factors, and bias in judicial decisions : evidence from Brazilian drug trafficking cases

Abstract

This study examines the influence of defendants’ socioeconomic status, criminal history, and drug-related factors on judicial outcomes in Brazilian drug trafficking cases. Using data from 4,606 defendants and applying econometric techniques, the analysis identifies pretrial detention as a key determinant of both conviction likelihood and sentence severity. Socioeconomic disadvantage—particularly the percentage of low-income residents in a defendant’s neighborhood—emerges as a strong predictor of punitive outcomes. Judicial decisions are also shaped by gender, age, prior convictions, and the quantity of drugs involved. Although race does not show direct effects on sentencing, Black individuals are disproportionately subjected to police stops, increasing their exposure to arrests in flagrante delicto, which in turn raises the likelihood of pretrial detention and conviction.