Technical Paper IPC-IG
URI Permanente para esta coleçãohttps://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/handle/11058/17476
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Publicação Soluções Relacionadas aos Desafios de Independência, Credibilidade e Uso da Avaliação (NEC)(2014) IPCANAIS DA TERCEIRA CONFERÊNCIA INTERNACIONAL SOBRE CAPACIDADES NACIONAIS DE AVALIAÇÃO, 30 DE SETEMBRO – 2 DE OUTUBRO 2013, SÃO PAULO, BRASILPublicação Yemen National Social Protection Monitoring Survey (NSPMS): 2012-2013 – Executive Summary(2014) IPC-IG; Yemen, Unicef"The Yemen National Social Protection Monitoring Survey (NSPMS) is a household longitudinal survey with a nationally representative balanced sample of 6,397 households (of an initial sample of 7,152). Each household in the balanced sample was visited on a quarterly basis over a 12-month period between October 2012 and September 2013. The survey had two key objectives: (1) to provide up-to-date data on how the poor and vulnerable have coped since the 2011 crisis; and (2) to produce evidence on the targeting of the Social Welfare Fund (SWF) cash transfer programme and to assess its impact on some developmental indicators. The NSPMS provides data on the SWF, living conditions, water, sanitation, education, child nutrition, child and maternal health, child protection, work and income, livelihoods and food security. This Executive Summary encompasses a description of the sampling design, key indicators of the survey and findings of the SWF impact assessment."(...)Publicação The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Reconsidered(2008) Weeks, JohnThis paper inspects the standard policy rule that under a flexible exchange rate regime with perfectly elastic capital flows monetary policy is effective and fiscal policy is not. The logical validity of the statement requires that the domestic price level effect of devaluation be ignored. The price level effect is noted in some textbooks, but not analysed. When it is subjected to a rigorous analysis, the interaction between exchange rate changes and domestic price level changes render the standard statement false. The logically correct statement would be, under a flexible exchange rate regime with perfectly elastic capital flows the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the values of the import share and the sum of the trade elasticities. Monetary policy will be more effective than fiscal policy if and only if the sum of the trade elasticities exceeds the import share. Inspection of data from developing countries indicates a low effectiveness of monetary policy under flexible exchange rates. In the more general case of less than perfectly elastic capital flows, the conditions for monetary policy to be more effective than fiscal policy are even more restrictive. Use of empirical evidence on trade shares and interest rate differentials suggest that for most countries fiscal policy would prove more effective than monetary policy under a flexible exchange rate regime. In any case, the general theoretical assertion that monetary policy is more effective is incorrect. The results sustain the standard Keynesian conclusion that fiscal policy is more effective, whether the exchange rate is fixed or flexible. (...)Publicação Structured Demand and Smallholder Farmers in Brazil: the Case of PAA and PNAE(2013) IPCIn the last decade, Brazil gained widespread recognition around the world for its successful initiatives in fi ghting hunger and extreme poverty. The country’s experience is serving as inspiration for other countries to develop their own policies and programmes. Although some studies have been conducted to systematise the experiences and to determine the foundation of Brazil’s success, there is still a lack of research on the concrete results the Brazilian programmes have achieved and their impacts on people’s lives. One aspect of Brazil´s success can be attributed to linking the supply by smallholder farmers to the demand of institutional procurement for food-based safety net programmes. This has been coined by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation as ‘Structured Demand’. The theory of change is that structured demand connects large, predictable sources of demand for agricultural products to small farmers, which reduces risk and encourages improved quality, leading to improved systems, increased income and reduced poverty. (...)Publicação Public Policies for Rural Areas and the Fight against Rural Poverty in the North and Northeast Regions of Brazil: a Look at the Fish, the Fishing Rod and the River(2015) Battestin, Simone; Vieira, Izabelle; Arruda, Pedro"Studies and research have shown that the development strategies put in place in recent years have led to a decrease in poverty in Brazil (Nunes et al. 2014). However, the country's poverty profile remains unaltered, with the highest rates of poverty and extreme poverty found in the North and Northeast regions of the country. The number of poor individuals in the Northeast is still disproportionately high relative to the overall population distribution: in 1995 the region was home to around 45 per cent of the poor people in the country—and remained so between 2004 and 2013—while the region accounts for about 30 per cent of Brazil's total population." (…)Publicação Poverty Profile: The Rural North and Northeast Regions of Brazil(2015) Soares, Sergei; Souza, Laetícia R. De; Silva, Wesley J.; Silveira, Fernando Gaiger"Rates of poverty and extreme poverty have decreased significantly in Brazil over the last 10 years. The prevalence of poverty dropped from 20 per cent to just over 9 per cent of the population, while the prevalence of extreme poverty fell from 7 per cent to 4 per cent in the same period. A continued decrease is unlikely in the future, however, as two of the factors driving the decrease face limitations or significant problems: the labour market and social spending—most notably, social insurance and assistance." (…)Publicação Intersections between Social Protection, Inclusive Growth and Fiscal Space(2008) IPCIn this paper, we present an analytical framework to identify the links between macroeconomic and social protection policies from an inclusive growth perspective. In the first section, we present the objectives of macroeconomic and social protection policies. In the following section we analyze how these policies interact. The third section is dedicated to an analytical framework of how social protection policies affect macroeconomic growth, especially growth. The fourth section presents the design and the objectives of some social protection programmes, emphasizing how they interact with the growth goals. The last section presents the implications of these interactions in fiscal space.Publicação Fiscal Conditions of Brazil’s Public Sector: an Analysis of the States in the North and Northeast Regions and Funding for Rural Development(2015) Orair, Rodrigo Octávio; Gobetti, Sergio Wulf; Alencar, André Amorim"Brazil is a continent-sized country and a federal republic, comprising 27 state units (including the Federal District, where the capital, Brasília, is located) and more than 5,500 municipalities with ample tax autonomy and active participation in duties usually befalling public administration, such as the provision of health and education services, public safety and various types of infrastructure. As such, Brazil's fiscal policy encompasses all three levels of the government, which jointly collect and share tax revenues and define the constitutional duties to be performed by each, as well as ways to fund them—through borrowing, for example. In the process of federal coordination, however, the central government plays a key role and holds greater power than the other levels, so that the policies outlined at the central level—beyond the national macroeconomic environment—greatly influence the room to manoeuvre for states and municipalities, in practice restricting their effective autonomy." (…)Publicação Exploring and Strengthening the Intersections between Social Protection, Employment and Inclusive Growth(2013) IPCEntender os fatores que limitam as transições para trabalhos decentes ainda é uma das principais preocupações para elaboradores de políticas, na medida em que mudanças no mundo do trabalho afetam, consideravelmente, a disponibilidade e a distribuição de trabalhos de qualidade. Muitas dessas questões globais são espelhadas no Oriente Médio e Norte da África (MENA). Este One Pager apresenta um relatório elaborado pelo IPC-IG e UNICEF MENARO, que analisa o papel da proteção social na promoção da transição ao trabalho para jovens na região MENA, especialmente aqueles em grupos vulneráveis.Publicação Developing a Global Model for Trade, Finance and Income Distribution(2007) Cripps, Francis; Izurieta, Alex; McKinley, TerryThis paper is the product of a research programme, called State of the World Economy (SOWE), which has been sponsored by the International Poverty Centre, Brasilia (IPC) and the Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance (CERF). Alphametrics in Thailand has played the leading role in originating and developing the research programme. (...)Publicação Climate Change and its Impacts on Family Farming in the North/Northeast Regions of Brazil(2015) Filho, Haroldo de Oliveira Machado"Climate change has increasingly been recognised as the main challenge facing humanity in the coming decades. The starting point of this study is the consideration of future climate change scenarios and the uncertainties they bring. First, global projections available in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) are presented. Second, they are compared with regional scenarios (downscaling) developed by the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), focusing on the two main IPCC scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5)1 and the two main global models (MIROC and Hadley Centre) for the periods 2011–2040 and 2041–2070, to identify the main trends in terms of changes in temperature and precipitation for the North and Northeast regions of Brazil (more specifically, in the Amazon, Semi-arid and Cerrado biomes)." (…)Publicação Atlas of extreme poverty in the North and Northeast regions of Brazil in 2010(2015) IPC-IG"Poverty and extreme poverty have been decreasing significantly in Brazil. Between 2004 and 2013, poverty decreased from 20 per cent to just over 9 per cent of the population, while extreme poverty fell from around 7 per cent to 4 per cent in the same period. A considerable part of this decrease was due to the expansion of the labour market and significant increases in transfers to the poor, both by social security and through the Bolsa Família programme. Unfortunately, this progress has stagnated. Between 2012 and 2013, extreme poverty increased slightly, and poverty remained stable. The labour market is deteriorating rapidly, and the fiscal scenario has gone from being relatively favourable to quite concerning. Data indicate that the two driving forces behind the reduction in poverty rates—the labour market and transfers to the poor—are unable to keep the same pace they had in the previous decade." (...)Publicação An Empirical Test of the Poverty Traps Hypothesis(2008) Rodríguez, FranciscoThis paper presents an empirical test of a subclass of poverty traps hypotheses. The test is based on the observation that the nonconvexities in the production function necessary to generate multiple equilibria need only be present in the region between the equilibria. Increasing returns should therefore be strongest when the economy is transitioning between steady states than when it is at or near one of those steady states. I implement this idea by estimating the degree of increasing returns during growth accelerations and growth transitions for a panel of developing and developed economies using UNIDO's Database of Industrial Statistics. I find no evidence of systematic differences in economies of scale between transition and non-transition episodes, shedding doubt on the idea that increasing returns in manufacturing generate poverty traps. (...)Publicação Alternatives for Projecting MDG Indicators(2008) Osorio, Rafael GuerreiroAlthough the Millennium Development Goals are global, in the sense that they are to be reached by the whole world, not necessarily by countries individually, in many countries the true commitment to them has led many to ask the question: will my country reach all or some of the MDGs by 2015? Are we on or off track? If off track, how far are we? To answer this question it is mandatory to perform some kind of projecting exercise. We talk of projections, not of forecasts, for there are many variables that can intervene to determine the performance of a country in its pursuit of the goals. Furthermore we have to deal with the fact that we cannot really predict what is going to happen up to 2015, but just make assumptions. However, projections can indeed be so accurate as to resemble forecasts. This is the case when there is plenty of data available, as well as technical expertise in projecting, and time. Unfortunately, this is seldom the case, particularly in developing countries. The common situation faced by those who ask the question on whether the MDGs will be reached by a certain country by 2015 is that of scarcity of data and/or of technical skills. (...)Publicação Yemen National Social Protection Monitoring Survey (NSPMS): 2012-2013 – Final Report(2014) IPC-IG; Yemen, Unicef"In Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the Middle East and North Africa region, one half of the population lives below the poverty line. The Transitional Programme for Stabilization and Development, 2012-2014 and the Mutual Accountability Framework have identified the expansion of social protection mechanisms as a key priority for improving the living conditions of the poorest people in Yemen. Moreover, the National Dialogue Conference outcomes clearly state that every citizen has the right to social protection if unable to support his/her household. The National Social Protection Monitoring Survey (NSPMS) provides the data necessary for the Government to formulate comprehensive and adequate social protection mechanisms to meet the needs and guarantee the rights of Yemen’s poorest citizens, especially children, youth and women."(...)